Bars Like Gantt chart bars - but more

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Bars hold Probability Fans

The base concept is simple: A Gantt-like model of heirarchical bars varying in time. Where each bar also contains:

  • Probability distributions at points in time along each bar - showing expected likelihood of achieving value at that time, and forming Probability Fans.
  • Tracking data (after project start, and when available) showing actual achieved value at points in time along each bar
  • Annotation data collecting who, when, and why information about entered likelihood probability distributions input on each ACTIVITY bar.

4 types of Bars

Each bar represents either:
  • SCENARIO bar - a special type of SUMMARY bar that may have two or more ALTERNATIVE bars as children.
  • ALTERNATIVE bar - a special type of SUMMARY bar that has a SCENARIO bar as it's parent.
  • SUMMARY bar - similar to a Gantt summary bar.
  • ACTIVITY - any individual factor that affects risk and reward over time for that aggregate plan.
      • Contains:
    • HISTORIC bar - Holds historic data ( e.g. past Stock or task performance )
    • GAP bar - Holds modeling data between HISTORIC and ACTIVITY bars ( e.g. Current budget data goes through April. New project starts in June ).
    • ACTIVITY bar - Holds Probability distributions at points in time along each ACTIVITY bar - showing expected likelihood of achieving value at that time, and forming ACTIVITY bar Probability Fans.
    • BANK bar - Since we're calculating likelihood of achieving value over time, when the ACTIVITY bar stops, the value doesn't go away. It's stored in the BANK bar.

ALTERNATIVE and SCENARIO bars are added to support Scenario Planning , Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) , and weighted views of Alternative Futures , by allowing the calculation of aggregate SCENARIO Probability Fans  from weighted ALTERNATIVES ( e.g. SCENARIO X shows: 40% of ALTERNATIVE A plus 60 % of ALTERNATIVE B ).